Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.015230 0.017270 0.019488 0.022079 0.025026 0.028275 0.032129
2025-04-13 0.011465 0.014126 0.017271 0.021268 0.026220 0.032166 0.039863
2025-04-20 0.010000 0.013038 0.016839 0.021957 0.028686 0.037254 0.049034
2025-04-27 0.008925 0.012185 0.016461 0.022496 0.030824 0.041958 0.058049
2025-05-04 0.008151 0.011582 0.016268 0.023159 0.033080 0.046918 0.067808
2025-05-11 0.007268 0.010700 0.015556 0.022963 0.034037 0.050075 0.075250
2025-05-18 0.006602 0.010037 0.015060 0.022981 0.035238 0.053616 0.083518
2025-05-25 0.005950 0.009317 0.014392 0.022642 0.035820 0.056223 0.090536
2025-06-01 0.005550 0.008936 0.014186 0.022973 0.037437 0.060520 0.100586
2025-06-08 0.005093 0.008417 0.013708 0.022805 0.038208 0.063498 0.108708
2025-06-15 0.004856 0.008229 0.013735 0.023454 0.040364 0.068901 0.121402
2025-06-22 0.004383 0.007598 0.012973 0.022692 0.040029 0.070039 0.126732
2025-06-29 0.004028 0.007148 0.012487 0.022380 0.040484 0.072641 0.135050
2025-07-06 0.003625 0.006577 0.011745 0.021546 0.039925 0.073389 0.140042
2025-07-13 0.003497 0.006488 0.011844 0.022246 0.042236 0.079553 0.155859
2025-07-20 0.003356 0.006362 0.011864 0.022791 0.044295 0.085415 0.171650
2025-07-27 0.003243 0.006277 0.011949 0.023463 0.046650 0.092040 0.189608
2025-08-03 0.003031 0.005980 0.011606 0.023265 0.047256 0.095267 0.200894
2025-08-10 0.002862 0.005756 0.011383 0.023283 0.048293 0.099435 0.214549
2025-08-17 0.002668 0.005463 0.011001 0.022939 0.048544 0.101997 0.224975
2025-08-24 0.002561 0.005340 0.010948 0.023275 0.050255 0.107763 0.243015
2025-08-31 0.002411 0.005115 0.010670 0.023105 0.050855 0.111189 0.256104
2025-09-07 0.002350 0.005074 0.010770 0.023762 0.053333 0.118936 0.279919